Tag Archives: The Shape of Water

Oscar Outlook: Best Picture

The Oscars are almost here and I’m excited to talk about the biggest award of the night. We sit through all the other awards to see which film is going to take home Best Picture. I remember my father having a poster of all the Best Picture Academy Award winners from 1927 – 1991. I studied that list of films, many of which I had never even heard of, much less seen. But it gave me a sense of this world of films that I was stepping into at just 10 years old.

I remember watching Billy Crystal hosting that next year’s Oscars. I remember asking about some of these films that I was too young to watch and begging my parents to let me see them. My father was a collector of VHS films during those days and once I could get my hands on it, one afternoon as a latch-key kid, I remember watching the Best Picture winner of 1992, Clint Eastwood’s Unforgiven. I think 10 year old me probably would have ranked Aladdin above Unforgiven (35 year-old me might just do the same thing), but I was hooked and wanted more.

Since those days, I remember watching all kinds of films from Hitchcock and Kubrick to westerns and war films. I had developed a taste and would never go back. Perhaps this year, there will be another 10 year old boy who might watch to hear “Remember Me” from Coco, but will stay up late to hear the proclamation of the Best Picture of the year and might ask his parents if he can see Dunkirk or Lady Bird. The Oscars are a love letter to the cinema that we adore so deeply and cherish so fondly.

Best Picture

And the nominees are…

  • The Shape of Water
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Darkest Hour
  • Call Me By Your Name
  • Dunkirk
  • Get Out
  • Lady Bird
  • Phantom Thread
  • The Post

Who Will Win

When nominations were first announced the clear favorite seemed to be The Shape of Water. However, it seems that the tides have turned towards my pick which is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. I’m happy with this change because I did not enjoy The Shape of Water as much as many of my movie loving friends. Three Billboards, on the other hand, has grown on me and found itself squarely in my top five movies of 2017. It could very easily be the big winner of the night with Best Picture, Actress, and Supporting Actor. What a shame that Martin McDonagh was not even nominated for direction. This original screenplay is also nominated but will most likely lose to Get Out.

Outside Chance

Of course, it is very possible that The Shape of Water could hold onto its original popular sentiment and win. The film is gorgeous, but I think Guillermo Del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth was so much better. I would be shocked if Get Out squeaked away with the victory, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. I really enjoyed Get Out, it was one of the best theater going experiences of the year. It is currently ranked just below Three Billboards in my top 10 of 2017.

Who Should Win

This is probably cheating, but if I had one wish, it would be for Warren Beatty to come out with Faye Dunaway for their second chance to announce the Best Picture award after last year’s fiasco, and I want him to rip up the ballot and declare that The Florida Project is the best movie of the year. It is available for streaming right now on iTunes, and many other sites. It has so much heart, imagination, and despair all wrapped up in a seedy hotel nestled just off I-4 in sunny Orlando, Florida just outside the Happiest Place on Earth.  Watch the trailer below and try not to fall in love with Brooklyn Prince and forget everything you ever though you knew about Willem Dafoe. It was criminal that his performance was their only nomination. This was the only glaring snub that I saw this year.

What do you think? Who will take home all those little golden statuettes tomorrow? Do you care? Will you even be watching? Do you remember some of the first movies that made you love film? Share with me below or send me a message on social media.

Oscar Outlook: Male Performance

What’s happening on Sunday night? That’s right. It’s time for the 90th annual Academy Awards more commonly called the Oscars. The one television program that I make arrangements to watch every year. It is a night to celebrate the movies and to a lesser extent, politics, and other social issues. This is the very reason that I have to watch this without my wife.

Let’s keep looking at the nominees in the major categories, because nobody is talking about Best Adapted Screenplay at the water cooler on Monday, that is unless Logan pulls off a major upset to beat Call Me By Your Name. Instead, all eyes are on the big awards like the two male performance categories that we are going to look at in this post.

Best Actor

And the nominees are…

  • Timothee Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
  • Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who Will Win

This is another category with a clear favorite. Gary Oldman will most likely take home his first Oscar on Sunday night after already winning the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. I loved Darkest Hour. I’m a fan of history (when presented to me in 2-3 hour segments in a dramatic way). When I first saw the makeup that transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, I was amazed and knew that we were going to see them nominated and probably winning for Best Hair and Makeup.

After watching the film though, I forgot it was Oldman under that makeup. I was completely enthralled with the story and sold on his passion and eccentricities. Oldman is known for being immensely flexible in his range and he has sunk deeply into characters before. Think of Dracula, True Romance, Sid and Nancy, and many more, but he has never been this electric and transparent in such an accessible and moving film.

Outside Chance

There are some rumors that the new kid on the block Timothee Chalamet could pull an upset. I think this is highly unlikely. While Call Me By Your Name does tick a lot of the Oscar’s boxes for being relevant politically and socially, when those anonymous votes get tallied, I don’t think the voters  ) find a majority to vote for the most pretentious and self-indulgent movie of the year. Fun fake fact: Peach sales have increased by 15% since the movie’s release.

Who Should Win

The Academy is probably trending towards the correct choice at this point. Part of me would love to see Daniel Day-Lewis take home his fourth Oscar in six nominations. That would give him the best nomination/win batting averages of those with more than five nominations. Compare that to Meryl Streep with her 21 nominations and only three wins. No offense to either Daniel Kaluuya or Denzel Washington who I thought were great in their roles but they don’t have a chance of winning.

Best Supporting Actor

And the nominees are…

  • Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Full disclosure: This is the only category in which I still have a blind spot. I missed All the Money in the World so I can’t comment on Christopher Plummer’s quick exchange for Kevin Spacey. I’m going to try and catch it before Sunday. I’m sure he is wonderful, but part of me thinks this is one of those political statement nominations.

Who Will Win

Sam Rockwell is the odds on favorite to win this and I couldn’t be happier for him. I’ve been keeping an eye on him ever since I saw him play Guy in Galaxy Quest back in 1999. Then when he played Zaphod Beezelbrox in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy I loved it. But his breakout role was for Duncan Jones criminally underrated sci-fi thriller Moon. Perhaps after he gets the win people will know him by his name instead of “you know, that one guy.”

Outside Chance

As much as I like Sam Rockwell and would love to see him win, in my heart of hearts I want to see Willem Dafoe pull out the victory for his role in the film that affected me more deeply than any other this year. Sean Baker’s The Florida Project was humanistic and rich. Dafoe plays an On-Site Manager for a small slum hotel called the Magic Castle in the shadow of Orlando’s Disney World.

The film was created with many non-actors, and actual residents of the hotel. I was shocked when this wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture because it is worth that accolade and more. There has been some groundswell of support for him in recent days, but I ultimately think that it was just too small of a film to make the impact that the Oscars are looking for.

Who Should Win

Rockwell and Harrelson both provide quality supporting roles to Frances McDormand’s powerhouse performance, but I’m going to go with the little guy and and say that Willem Dafoe should win this category for his supportive and compassionate father figure.

This is all just my speculation and it is all about what amounts to a fancy human horse race. The Academy invariably gets things wrong, they vote based upon popular tides and political leanings. They vote to make statements, and often that means that the true best of the year go by overlooked and under appreciated except by those of us who champion them. Let your voice be heard! Sound off in the comments below or find me on any of the major social media platforms and let’s talk about movies (or other stuff… but mostly movies.)