Category Archives: Actor/Actress

Oscar Outlook: Male Performance

What’s happening on Sunday night? That’s right. It’s time for the 90th annual Academy Awards more commonly called the Oscars. The one television program that I make arrangements to watch every year. It is a night to celebrate the movies and to a lesser extent, politics, and other social issues. This is the very reason that I have to watch this without my wife.

Let’s keep looking at the nominees in the major categories, because nobody is talking about Best Adapted Screenplay at the water cooler on Monday, that is unless Logan pulls off a major upset to beat Call Me By Your Name. Instead, all eyes are on the big awards like the two male performance categories that we are going to look at in this post.

Best Actor

And the nominees are…

  • Timothee Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name
  • Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread
  • Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
  • Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
  • Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who Will Win

This is another category with a clear favorite. Gary Oldman will most likely take home his first Oscar on Sunday night after already winning the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. I loved Darkest Hour. I’m a fan of history (when presented to me in 2-3 hour segments in a dramatic way). When I first saw the makeup that transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, I was amazed and knew that we were going to see them nominated and probably winning for Best Hair and Makeup.

After watching the film though, I forgot it was Oldman under that makeup. I was completely enthralled with the story and sold on his passion and eccentricities. Oldman is known for being immensely flexible in his range and he has sunk deeply into characters before. Think of Dracula, True Romance, Sid and Nancy, and many more, but he has never been this electric and transparent in such an accessible and moving film.

Outside Chance

There are some rumors that the new kid on the block Timothee Chalamet could pull an upset. I think this is highly unlikely. While Call Me By Your Name does tick a lot of the Oscar’s boxes for being relevant politically and socially, when those anonymous votes get tallied, I don’t think the voters  ) find a majority to vote for the most pretentious and self-indulgent movie of the year. Fun fake fact: Peach sales have increased by 15% since the movie’s release.

Who Should Win

The Academy is probably trending towards the correct choice at this point. Part of me would love to see Daniel Day-Lewis take home his fourth Oscar in six nominations. That would give him the best nomination/win batting averages of those with more than five nominations. Compare that to Meryl Streep with her 21 nominations and only three wins. No offense to either Daniel Kaluuya or Denzel Washington who I thought were great in their roles but they don’t have a chance of winning.

Best Supporting Actor

And the nominees are…

  • Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
  • Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water
  • Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World
  • Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Full disclosure: This is the only category in which I still have a blind spot. I missed All the Money in the World so I can’t comment on Christopher Plummer’s quick exchange for Kevin Spacey. I’m going to try and catch it before Sunday. I’m sure he is wonderful, but part of me thinks this is one of those political statement nominations.

Who Will Win

Sam Rockwell is the odds on favorite to win this and I couldn’t be happier for him. I’ve been keeping an eye on him ever since I saw him play Guy in Galaxy Quest back in 1999. Then when he played Zaphod Beezelbrox in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy I loved it. But his breakout role was for Duncan Jones criminally underrated sci-fi thriller Moon. Perhaps after he gets the win people will know him by his name instead of “you know, that one guy.”

Outside Chance

As much as I like Sam Rockwell and would love to see him win, in my heart of hearts I want to see Willem Dafoe pull out the victory for his role in the film that affected me more deeply than any other this year. Sean Baker’s The Florida Project was humanistic and rich. Dafoe plays an On-Site Manager for a small slum hotel called the Magic Castle in the shadow of Orlando’s Disney World.

The film was created with many non-actors, and actual residents of the hotel. I was shocked when this wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture because it is worth that accolade and more. There has been some groundswell of support for him in recent days, but I ultimately think that it was just too small of a film to make the impact that the Oscars are looking for.

Who Should Win

Rockwell and Harrelson both provide quality supporting roles to Frances McDormand’s powerhouse performance, but I’m going to go with the little guy and and say that Willem Dafoe should win this category for his supportive and compassionate father figure.

This is all just my speculation and it is all about what amounts to a fancy human horse race. The Academy invariably gets things wrong, they vote based upon popular tides and political leanings. They vote to make statements, and often that means that the true best of the year go by overlooked and under appreciated except by those of us who champion them. Let your voice be heard! Sound off in the comments below or find me on any of the major social media platforms and let’s talk about movies (or other stuff… but mostly movies.)

Oscar Outlook: Female Performance

The Oscars are on Sunday night. I want you to be informed about all the nominees and the stories surrounding their movies and nominations. That way you can be well informed at your Oscar party as you stuff your face full of hors-d’oeuvres.

There is an entire debate about whether or not the Actor and Actress categories should be combined or left separate. I don’t want to get involved in the politics of it, but I do like having separate categories because it means that we can recognize more performers for their craft. In this post, I’m going to look at both the race for Best Actor who happens to be a female and best Supporting Actor who happens to be a female.

Best Actress

And the nominees are…

  • Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird
  • Sally Hawkins for The Shape of Water
  • Margot Robbie for I, Tonya
  • Meryl Streep for The Post

Who Will Win

Frances McDormand is the hands down favorite to win this. Honestly, anyone else would be a shock. Three Billboards has grown on me the further I have gotten away from watching it. The film itself had a bit of controversy early on because of its somewhat flippant attitude towards racial violence. However, it lingers and invades in a good way and much of it is due to McDormand’s performance as a tortured mother who lost her daughter in a tragic way and is seeking justice in unconventional means.

This is her 5th nomination, and if all goes according to plan, it would be her 2nd win since her victory for her role in 1996’s Fargo. She has already taken home the Screen Actor’s Guild award, BAFTA, and Golden Globe for this performance, it is hard to think that the Academy will push against this wave of support.

Outside Chance

I guess technically McDormand split the Golden Globe with Saoirse (pronounced “Seer-sha”) Ronan. McDormand won for a dramatic performance and they called Lady Bird a comedy/musical. It’s possible that Saoirse could sneak in to win this, but anyone else is pretty much a statistical impossibility. But it is an honor to just be nominated, right?

Who Should Win

I’m not going to fight this one either, McDormand gave the female performance of the year in my eyes. She commanded the screen and left us broken with her. However, if we take that amazing performance away, I think we would be having a heated race between Saoirse Ronan for her coming of age Lady Bird performance and Margot Robbie as Tonya Harding in I, Tonya. All three of these films are in my top 10 of the year and all are deserving of much credit and praise.

Best Supporting Actress

And the nominees are…

  • Mary J. Blige for Mudbound
  • Allison Janney for I, Tonya
  • Lesley Manville for Phantom Thread
  • Laurie Metcalf for Lady Bird
  • Octavia Spencer for The Shape of Water

Who Will Win

If there were odds on this race, Allison Janney would be so far out front that I could lose money if I bet on her. Regardless, she deserves it! If you haven’t seen I, Tonya because you hate ice skating or whatever or the true crime drama kind of thing, then just watch it for the 5-6 scenes that we get with Allison Janney playing the acidic mother of Tonya Harding. She does more to elevate Margot Robbie’s performance as Tonya than Margot could have ever done on her own. That is why they call it a “Supporting” actor.

Outside Chance

If it comes out this week that Allison Janney is a cannibal and was somehow responsible for the death of Mr. Rogers, she would still win. Not just because voting is already completed but because she is that good.

Who Should Win

Are you listening? Allison Janney should win!

But if we are discounting her, then this would be between Laurie Metcalf as the Mother Bird to Saoirse Ronan’s Lady Bird and a subtle but tenacious performance by Lesley Manville as the sister of the unique and exacting character that was Daniel Day Lewis’ lead character in Phantom Thread. I obviously knew Laurie Metcalf from Roseanne ages ago, but Lesley Manville, I had to look up to see what else she had been in that I had missed. She was my favorite part of that film.

What do you think? Will the stars align for both of these favorites so they leave the stage grasping gold or will there be a shocking upset that we will all be talking about on Monday? I want to hear your opinions. It’s no fun just talking to myself. Let’s start a conversation here or on any of the major social media platforms.