What’s happening on Sunday night? That’s right. It’s time for the 90th annual Academy Awards more commonly called the Oscars. The one television program that I make arrangements to watch every year. It is a night to celebrate the movies and to a lesser extent, politics, and other social issues. This is the very reason that I have to watch this without my wife.
Let’s keep looking at the nominees in the major categories, because nobody is talking about Best Adapted Screenplay at the water cooler on Monday, that is unless Logan pulls off a major upset to beat Call Me By Your Name. Instead, all eyes are on the big awards like the two male performance categories that we are going to look at in this post.
Best Actor
And the nominees are…
- Timothee Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name
- Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread
- Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
- Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
- Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Who Will Win
This is another category with a clear favorite. Gary Oldman will most likely take home his first Oscar on Sunday night after already winning the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe. I loved Darkest Hour. I’m a fan of history (when presented to me in 2-3 hour segments in a dramatic way). When I first saw the makeup that transformed Gary Oldman into Winston Churchill, I was amazed and knew that we were going to see them nominated and probably winning for Best Hair and Makeup.
After watching the film though, I forgot it was Oldman under that makeup. I was completely enthralled with the story and sold on his passion and eccentricities. Oldman is known for being immensely flexible in his range and he has sunk deeply into characters before. Think of Dracula, True Romance, Sid and Nancy, and many more, but he has never been this electric and transparent in such an accessible and moving film.
Outside Chance
There are some rumors that the new kid on the block Timothee Chalamet could pull an upset. I think this is highly unlikely. While Call Me By Your Name does tick a lot of the Oscar’s boxes for being relevant politically and socially, when those anonymous votes get tallied, I don’t think the voters ) find a majority to vote for the most pretentious and self-indulgent movie of the year. Fun fake fact: Peach sales have increased by 15% since the movie’s release.
Who Should Win
The Academy is probably trending towards the correct choice at this point. Part of me would love to see Daniel Day-Lewis take home his fourth Oscar in six nominations. That would give him the best nomination/win batting averages of those with more than five nominations. Compare that to Meryl Streep with her 21 nominations and only three wins. No offense to either Daniel Kaluuya or Denzel Washington who I thought were great in their roles but they don’t have a chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actor
And the nominees are…
- Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project
- Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water
- Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World
- Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Full disclosure: This is the only category in which I still have a blind spot. I missed All the Money in the World so I can’t comment on Christopher Plummer’s quick exchange for Kevin Spacey. I’m going to try and catch it before Sunday. I’m sure he is wonderful, but part of me thinks this is one of those political statement nominations.
Who Will Win
Sam Rockwell is the odds on favorite to win this and I couldn’t be happier for him. I’ve been keeping an eye on him ever since I saw him play Guy in Galaxy Quest back in 1999. Then when he played Zaphod Beezelbrox in Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy I loved it. But his breakout role was for Duncan Jones criminally underrated sci-fi thriller Moon. Perhaps after he gets the win people will know him by his name instead of “you know, that one guy.”
Outside Chance
As much as I like Sam Rockwell and would love to see him win, in my heart of hearts I want to see Willem Dafoe pull out the victory for his role in the film that affected me more deeply than any other this year. Sean Baker’s The Florida Project was humanistic and rich. Dafoe plays an On-Site Manager for a small slum hotel called the Magic Castle in the shadow of Orlando’s Disney World.
The film was created with many non-actors, and actual residents of the hotel. I was shocked when this wasn’t even nominated for Best Picture because it is worth that accolade and more. There has been some groundswell of support for him in recent days, but I ultimately think that it was just too small of a film to make the impact that the Oscars are looking for.
Who Should Win
Rockwell and Harrelson both provide quality supporting roles to Frances McDormand’s powerhouse performance, but I’m going to go with the little guy and and say that Willem Dafoe should win this category for his supportive and compassionate father figure.
This is all just my speculation and it is all about what amounts to a fancy human horse race. The Academy invariably gets things wrong, they vote based upon popular tides and political leanings. They vote to make statements, and often that means that the true best of the year go by overlooked and under appreciated except by those of us who champion them. Let your voice be heard! Sound off in the comments below or find me on any of the major social media platforms and let’s talk about movies (or other stuff… but mostly movies.)